4 free resources on this topic. Everything here is free and hand-picked. You can also search within this topic.
Newsletter and blog covering transformative AI risk, AI alignment, forecasting, longtermism and how to navigate the century ahead. By Holden Karnofsky; posts are freely readable with an optional audio version.
From the site: For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app
Daniel Kokotajlo's research blog on what a world with very capable AI might look like, including the AI 2027 scenario work.
From the site: Preparing for a world with AGI. Click to read AI Futures Project, by Daniel Kokotajlo, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Why I recommend it: This is forecasting, not measurement — treat it as a well-argued guess. Useful for the questions it raises rather than the dates it puts on them.
A detailed scenario for how AI might develop through 2027, written by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues, with the reasoning and uncertainties spelled out. Free to read in full.
From the site: A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
Why I recommend it: The forecast everyone in this field argued about. Read it as one carefully argued scenario, not a prediction — the authors say as much themselves.
Scott Alexander's free long-form blog on statistics, medicine, forecasting, AI risk and how to reason carefully about contested claims.
Why I recommend it: Read it for the reasoning habits rather than the conclusions — the posts on evaluating evidence are useful in any field.
