Graduating into Disruption: Labor Market Outcomes for AI-Exposed College Majors
US Census Bureau working paper (CES 26-56, September 2026) by Cody Orr, Lee C. Tucker and Lawrence Warren, using administrative records covering about 29% of US bachelor's degrees conferred 2016-2024. Graduates in the most AI-exposed tenth of majors saw their chance of being employed in the quarter after graduation fall five percentage points, and first full-quarter earnings fall thirteen percent, starting immediately after ChatGPT's release in late 2022. The earnings hit is comparable to graduating into a large recession. About half came from lower pay inside the same industries, the rest from graduates shifting into lower-paying sectors such as restaurants and retail. The effect shrinks to about five percent two years out but does not disappear for the most exposed majors.
Why I recommend it: This is the strongest evidence yet that AI has already moved entry-level pay, because it uses actual wage records rather than employer statements or surveys. Two things to hold onto: the paper says plainly it has not been through Census Bureau review and is not an official position, and exposure is measured by what a major typically leads to, not by whether any particular employer used AI. So it tells you which fields got harder to enter — not that a machine took a named job.