Free
EssayNewsletter
AI & Future of Work
What I Saw Around the Curve, 2026
Second Thoughts newsletter essay reflecting on predictions about AI progress and their accuracy heading into 2026.
#AI forecasting#AI trends#newsletter
ai forecasting
3 free resources on this topic. Everything here is free and hand-picked. You can also search within this topic.
Free
Research Paper
Research & Papers
Advanced AI according to 1,580 researchers (ESPAI 2024)
AI Impacts' September 2026 paper on its fourth Expert Survey on Progress in AI, which reached 1,580 researchers in December 2024; it reports shortened timelines to human-level AI and substantial uncertainty about consequences.
#ai-forecasting#survey#research-paper
Free
Research Paper
Technology & Ethics
Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI
- Authors
- Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart
- Venue
- Preprint, not yet peer-reviewed
- Published
- January 2024
- ID
- arXiv:2401.02843
Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart and co-authors survey 2,778 published AI researchers on when AI will reach various milestones and how risky it could be (arXiv, January 2024).
Why I recommend it: The largest survey of its kind, from AI Impacts. Expert forecasts vary widely and shift a lot with how questions are worded.
#ai forecasting#ai risk#research#researchers#survey