2 free resources on this topic. Everything here is free and hand-picked. You can also search within this topic.
Essay arguing that scaling up neural networks — more data, compute and parameters — may be sufficient to reach general intelligence, without fundamentally new algorithms. Written by researcher and essayist Gwern Branwen.
Daniel Kokotajlo's research blog on what a world with very capable AI might look like, including the AI 2027 scenario work.
From the site: Preparing for a world with AGI. Click to read AI Futures Project, by Daniel Kokotajlo, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Why I recommend it: This is forecasting, not measurement — treat it as a well-argued guess. Useful for the questions it raises rather than the dates it puts on them.
