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5 resources
The personal site of Joe Carlsmith, a writer, researcher and philosopher at Anthropic working on Claude's constitution, with essays on ethics, effective altruism, the long-term future and advanced AI.
Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor's influential essay arguing AI is best understood as a normal technology — adopted slowly, shaped by institutions — rather than an unstoppable superintelligence.
Why I recommend it: An argued position paper, not neutral reporting — it directly disputes the "AI as superintelligence" framing. One of the most-cited counterpoints in the AI-risk debate.
Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart and co-authors survey 2,778 published AI researchers on when AI will reach various milestones and how risky it could be (arXiv, January 2024).
Why I recommend it: The largest survey of its kind, from AI Impacts. Expert forecasts vary widely and shift a lot with how questions are worded.
Free question-and-answer site explaining AI risk arguments in plain language, founded by Rob Miles and maintained by volunteers. Answers are organised as linked questions from beginner to advanced, covering how AI is advancing, why systems may pursue goals, alignment research and AI governance. Includes Stampy, a chatbot that answers AI safety questions with sources. Open source on GitHub; run as a project of Ashgro Inc, a US 501(c)(3) charity.
Why I recommend it: The clearest free place to find out what people mean when they talk about AI risk, written so you can follow it without a technical background. Be clear about what it is: this is advocacy, not a neutral survey of the debate. The homepage opens with 'it could lead to human extinction', and the whole site is built by people who already hold that view, so you will get their strongest arguments rather than the strongest objections to them. Their own chatbot warns it can be inaccurate — check its sources before repeating anything. Read it to understand the case, then read the critics of it, and pair it with the AI Basics page here for the numbers.
Qiaochu Yuan (QC) on seeing Eliezer Yudkowsky as a prophet, and what that framing means for thinking about AI risk and the future.
From the site: I see Eliezer Yudkowsky as a prophet, and I mean that fairly literally.
Why I recommend it: Substack may show signup prompts, but the article itself was publicly accessible when added.
