Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring

Abstract

We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden’s largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden’s seven-month gap between the Riksbank’s first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer– employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers.

The authors' own abstract, copied from cms.ratio.se.

How to cite it

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Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch, & Engberg (2026). Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring. Ratio Institute Working Paper No. 388. https://cms.ratio.se/app/uploads/2026/03/lodefalk_march16_paper_v2-kombinerades.pdf

Lodefalk, , et al. "Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring." Ratio Institute Working Paper No. 388, 2026, https://cms.ratio.se/app/uploads/2026/03/lodefalk_march16_paper_v2-kombinerades.pdf.

@article{lodefalk2026same,
  title = {Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring},
  author = {Lodefalk and Löthman and Koch and Engberg},
  journal = {Ratio Institute Working Paper No. 388},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://cms.ratio.se/app/uploads/2026/03/lodefalk_march16_paper_v2-kombinerades.pdf},
}

What it is

Ratio Institute Working Paper No. 388 (Lodefalk, Löthman, Koch, Engberg) on how generative AI relates to hiring across age groups. Free PDF.

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