The Strategic Foresight of LLMs: Evidence from a Fully Prospective Venture Tournament

What it is

A February 2026 working paper (Csaszar, Peterson, Wilde) that had AI models and 346 experienced managers rank 30 live Kickstarter tech ventures before their fundraising ended. The best model, Gemini 2.5 Pro, ranked outcomes far more accurately than the humans, and human-AI teams did not beat it.

Why I recommend it

A preprint that has not been peer reviewed, and it covers just 30 crowdfunding campaigns. It is a striking result, but it is not proof that AI can pick winning businesses.

Topics

#research #preprint

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 0 opens