Daniel Kokotajlo
Executive director, AI Futures Project; former OpenAI researcher
Former OpenAI researcher and co-author of "AI 2027," a widely discussed forecast of AI's near-term trajectory.
Key arguments & positions
- Argues progress toward highly capable, autonomous "agentic" AI systems is likely faster than policymakers expect.
- Calls for far greater transparency from frontier AI labs about internal capabilities and safety testing.
- Has criticized non-disparagement practices that discourage former employees from speaking out.
Accomplishments
- Former OpenAI governance researcher, left in 2024.
- Authored "What 2026 Looks Like" (2021), an early forecast widely noted for its accuracy.
- Founded and leads the AI Futures Project and co-authored "AI 2027."
- Named to the TIME100 AI list (2024).
Papers & key writings
Links
Timeline
- 2021Publishes "What 2026 Looks Like", his forecasting post.
- 2024Leaves OpenAI, declining to sign its non-disparagement agreement.
- 2025Publishes the AI 2027 scenario with the AI Futures Project.
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AI 2027
A detailed scenario for how AI might develop through 2027, written by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues, with the reasoning and uncertainties spelled out. Free to read in full.
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These Are the Most Urgent AI Risks, According to 272 Experts
MIT Sloan summary of research surveying 272 experts on which AI risks could cause the most harm in the next five years.
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AISafety.info
Free question-and-answer site explaining AI risk arguments in plain language, founded by Rob Miles and maintained by volunteers. Answers are organised as linked questions from beginner to advanced, covering how AI is advancing, why systems may pursue goals, alignment research and AI governance. Includes Stampy, a chatbot that answers AI safety questions with sources. Open source on GitHub; run as a project of Ashgro Inc, a US 501(c)(3) charity.
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Concrete Problems in AI Safety
The 2016 paper that framed AI safety as a set of specific engineering problems — side effects, reward hacking, unsafe exploration — rather than a philosophical worry. Free on arXiv.
Why this: Covers AI safety and AI risk too