Philosophies & Movements
Theory of change (ToC)
An explanation of how a strategy or intervention is expected to lead to a desired outcome, including the causal steps and assumptions connecting actions to results. AI-safety organizations use theories of change to explain how research, evaluations or policy work could reduce risk. A ToC is a proposed causal account, not evidence that a plan will succeed; the abbreviation can have other meanings outside this context.
Origin · no single documented coiner
An established strategy and evaluation concept, not an AI-safety coinage. The Center for Theory of Change describes mapping outcomes, interventions and assumptions backward from long-term goals. Connor Blake's 'Zoomer Doomer Paradiso' documents the abbreviation ToC in AI-safety organizations.