How It Works
Miscalibrated
Having confidence that does not match how often predictions turn out to be correct. For example, if events assigned an 80% probability happen only half the time across many comparable forecasts, those forecasts are miscalibrated. In rationalist conversation the word can also criticize someone's judgment; calibration is distinct from accuracy and from agreement with a group's views.
Origin · no single documented coiner
Established statistical and forecasting terminology. LessWrong's Calibration reference explains the distinction between accuracy and calibrated confidence. 'Zoomer Doomer Paradiso' also documents its use as a critical label in AI-safety conversation; no single coiner is credited.