Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets

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Authors: Jaden Zhang, Gardenia Liu, Oliver Johansson, Hileamlak Yitayew, Kamryn Ohly, Grace Li
Venue: arXiv (preprint, not yet peer-reviewed)
Published: 2026-03-28
ID: arXiv:2604.07355

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APA

Zhang, J., Liu, G., Johansson, O., Yitayew, H., Ohly, K., & Li, G. (2026). Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets. arXiv (preprint, not yet peer-reviewed). https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07355

MLA

Zhang, Jaden, et al. "Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets." arXiv (preprint, not yet peer-reviewed), 2026, https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07355.

BibTeX

@article{zhang2026prediction,
  title = {Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets},
  author = {Jaden Zhang and Gardenia Liu and Oliver Johansson and Hileamlak Yitayew and Kamryn Ohly and Grace Li},
  journal = {arXiv (preprint, not yet peer-reviewed)},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07355},
}

What it is

arXiv preprint benchmarking AI models on real-world prediction markets.

Added Oct 28, 2026 · 0 opens